Understandably, these tumbling prices will have a negative impact on module revenues – which rose 74% to US$38 billion in 2010. IMS forecast that, despite shipments increasing, this figure will slump to US$30 billion in 2012. However, once the industry rides out this troublesome period, revenue growth is forecast to resume in 2013, although a return to 2010’s record levels are not expected to happen until after 2015.
via pv-tech.org
This is an absolutely remarkable forecast. Prices for solar panels are dropping so fast that revenues are expected to decline while the size of the market (in shipments) grows.
Note that revenues are not expected to return to 2010 levels until 2015!
That is crazy. Of course this is only a forecast but the overall trend is well worth noting. Solar module manufacturers have been so successful at adding so much capacity so quickly that they are undermining their own market. There will surely be a shake-out in which high-cost/low-quality manufacturers shut down, but the real story should be about how quickly this industry is scaling and can continue to scale.
